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CET - 3 January 1995 (mind) |
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| 2. |
OMRI Daily Digest - 4 January 1995 (mind) |
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CET - 4 January 1995 (mind) |
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CET - 29 December 1994 (mind) |
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Ministry of Foreign Affairs - Newsletter (jan.2) (mind) |
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| + - | CET - 3 January 1995 (mind) |
VÁLASZ |
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03 January 1995
Volume 2, Issue 2
REGIONAL NEWS
-------------
**Hungarian - IMF Talks Progress**
Hungarian Finance Minister Laszlo Bekesi says Hungary could
reach a long-term agreement with the International Monetary Fund
by mid-year. Part of the agreement calls for the government
to adopt a three-year modernization program. Budapest
believes a fresh IMF loan package would ease the country's
27 billion dollar debt crisis and assure foreign investors and
creditors in the government's economic policy. In October,
IMF Managing Director Michel Camdessus said Hungary must
reform its social welfare system, or it will not be able to
fund its 1996 budget.
BUSINESS FEATURE
----------------
For individuals or western companies the new year may bring
resolutions to follow though on investment plans in Central
Europe. What can they expect in 1995?
AS 1995 takes off, Central Europe continues to be a ripe
region for foreign investment. One person looking ahead, is
Keith Crane, director of research for Plan-Econ, a Washington
DC based investment consultancy. Crane says the monument of
growth will keep foreign money moving throughout the region:
"Every country in the region is reporting sharp increases
usually in industrial output. It looks like GDP is up
everywhere and it's getting up in the 4-6 % increases per
annum".
"The recovery is extending into 1995. It looks like there's a
good head of steam for the recovery, and so on into 1995 and
'96, it should be a very attractive place to invest."
One area Crane expects to see targeted for large investment
is the energy and utility sector. Hungary and the Czech
Republic, in particular, will need more foreign money for
their power plants and telephone companies:
"What we see happening is, especially for governments like
Hungary, which are strapped for cash, there'll be increasing
interest and pressure in privatizing utilities, and this is
really the next wave of major investment in the region."
Crane also says that the automotive industry will see a lot of
growth.Especially through increased investment from
Volkswagen, General Motors and South Korea's Daewoo.
But in addition to these large corporations, Crane says
medium-sized western companies and even individuals will
enter the region, especially as more Eastern European
investment funds crop up in the west.Therefore, financial
services will be a big interest for investors.
"Many investors ask are the banks going to continue to make
loan decisions based on political pressure or have they
become more commercially minded? And of coarse the second
major question or problem for prospective investors are how
large are the bad debt problems of these banks."
"To this point, the bad loan problems always seem to be
getting bigger and bigger and bigger."
Crane adds that these private debts along with the political
and economic uncertainty are warning signs.
"Government financial stability is important for investors.
The major reason why Hungary was able to attract 7 billion
dollars in investment over the past few years and Poland
substantially less was that Poland was not creditworthy and
Hungary was. Poland welshed on its debts."
Now Poland appears poised to catch up with Hungary on the
investment trail.
But Crane warns that there are hidden roadblocks on this
trail. One is high-priced management costs needed to make
ailing Central European companies profitable. He says some
entrepreneurs have found ways around this, by starting from
scratch:
"More and more of our clients are going green field. they'd
much prefer to set up their own company, build their own
factory and avoid the problems that they've had buying into a
local manufacturer."
So while market forces and outside investment can drive a
country's economic recovery much of it also involves a
measure of risk and an investment of faith. Generally, this
faith should continue to pay off in 1995.
ABOUT CET ON-LINE
-----------------
* CET On-Line - copyright 1994 Word Up! Inc. and Cameron M. Hewes.
All rights reserved. This publication may be freely forwarded,
archived, or otherwise distributed in electronic format only so
long as this notice, and all other information contained in this
publication is included. For-profit distribution of this
publication or the information contained herein is strictly
prohibited. For more information, contact the publishers.
*****************************************************************
A tovabbterjesztest a New York-i szekhelyu Magyar Emberi Jogok
Alapitvany tamogatja.
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[*][*][*] [*][*][*] [*][*] [*][*]
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Reposting is supported by Hungarian Human Rights Foundation News
and Information Service.
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|
| + - | OMRI Daily Digest - 4 January 1995 (mind) |
VÁLASZ |
Feladó:  (cikkei)
|
OMRI DAILY DIGEST
Vol. 1, No. 3, 4 January 1995
We welcome you to the Open Media Research Institute's
Daily Digest - a compilation of news concerning the
former Soviet Union and East-Central and Southeastern
Europe. The Daily Digest picks up where the RFE/RL Daily
Report, which recently ceased publication, left off.
Contributors include OMRI's 30-member staff of analysts,
plus selected freelance specialists. OMRI is a unique public-
private venture between the Open Society Institute and the
U.S. Board for International Broadcasting.
HUNGARY SEEKS CLOSER TIES WITH NATO. Hungarian
Defense Ministry spokesman Lajos Erdelyi, in an interview
with Magyar Hirlap on 3 January, says his country wants
British and German troops to hold joint exercises with
Hungarian forces in Hungary later this year. Erdelyi
explained this is part of a Hungarian plan to take a more
active role in NATO's Partnership for Peace program. He
added that Hungary has set aside 400 million forint ($3.5
million) for this purpose. Hungarian troops are to
participate in NATO exercises in Italy this year. Erdelyi also
said the Hungarian military would be further reorganized to
bring it up to the standards of "Euroatlantic integrational
structures." Personnel changes in 1995 are to include
dismissing some 20% of army officers and drafting 7,000
fewer conscripts than in 1994. Also on 3 January, Foreign
Ministry spokesman Gabor Szentivanyi said Hungary
expects Austria, a member of the European Union since 1
January, to tighten border controls, AFP reports. Szentivanyi
noted that although no irregularities have yet been reported
on the Hungarian-Austrian border, Hungarian officials were
reckoning with the introduction of stricter tourist and
transport checks. -- Jan Cleave, OMRI, Inc.
OIL POLLUTION AT ROMANIAN-HUNGARIAN
BORDER. Quoting a spokesman for the Environment
Ministry, Romanian television said on 3 January that an
oilfield accident has polluted more than 40 kilometers of
the river Barcau and the pollution might cross the border
into Hungary. The spokesman said the oil from a refinery in
the Bihor county was detected on 30 December. About 35
tons were removed by technicians but it was impossible to
collect it all and the pollution was now spreading down-
river. The Barcau enters Hungary above the town of Oradea
and becomes the Berettyo, which eventually joins other
rivers in the Hungarian plain. The deputy prefect of Oradea
county was quoted by Reuters as saying that a special
commission was investigating the cause of the spill. --
Michael Shafir, OMRI, Inc.
[As of 1200 CET]
Compiled by Pete Baumgartner and Steve Kettle
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A tovabbterjesztest a New York-i szekhelyu Magyar Emberi Jogok
Alapitvany tamogatja.
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Reposting is supported by Hungarian Human Rights Foundation News
and Information Service.
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|
| + - | CET - 4 January 1995 (mind) |
VÁLASZ |
Feladó:  (cikkei)
|
04 January 1995
Volume 2, Issue 3
REGIONAL NEWS
-------------
**Hungarian Troops In Western Europe**
Hungary is going to take part in peacekeeping exercises this year in
Italy. It'll be the first time Hungarian troops will have stepped
onto western European soil. NATO is planning a number of joint
exercises involving troops from the former Warsaw Pact and NATO
members this year.
**Romania Is Reporting A Large Oil Spill On The Hungarian Border**
The spill on the Berettyo river will take days to clean up, but
Hungarian Environment Ministry Counselor Anna Adacsy says
it's not expected to cause serious damage to the surrounding
environment. However, Adacsy is warning that the oil could
seep into the area's underground water table and pollute
water supplies. Adacsy is warning nearby residents to look
for signs of contamination in their water. Hungarian officials
have already collected 158 gallons of oil, and are continuing
clean up efforts. In Bucharest a spokeswoman for the
Romanian Environment Ministry says the spill is from the
Suplacul De Barcau oil field, and was detected December
30th. Romania has set up a commission of inquiry to
determine the cause of the spill.
BUSINESS NEWS
-------------
*Hungarian Forint Devalued**
Hungary has begun the new year with a 1.4 % devaluation of
the forint - a smaller depreciation than predicted by bankers
and analysts. But they say it could be a prelude to a larger
devaluation next month. The move became efficient yesterday.
Csaba Pasztor is managing director of the National Bank. He
says that Hungarian consumers will not see the inflationary
effects of the devaluation for a while:
"Probably not in the short run. I don't really think the price
should go up because of this particular devaluation in the
coming days, but it is a fact that for the whole year we do
see about 18 to 20 % inflation in Hungary, so obviously the
devaluation has some effect on the price increases."
Pasztor says the 1.4 % is the first of a series of incremental
devaluation, which will total 10 to 12 % by year's end. They're
intended to offset the effect the country's expected inflation
will have on Hungary's export. Ultimately,Pasztor says the
National Bank wants to bring inflation down to single-digit
levels.
BUSINESS FEATURE
----------------
Back when everything was state-owned in communist Central
Europe, the question of buying and selling land didn't really
come up. Those privileged enough to own land usually decided
who bought, sold and rented it, and this came to in play
rarely, for example when westerners were involved.
Back when, real estate agencies were functions of the
government, usually acting as arms of state-run tourist
agencies, diplomatic, foreigner or interior ministries, And, as
Business Central Europe editor Bela Papp explains, the only
question involved in leasing space - especially for
westerners - was what one was getting. It often wasn't what
it appeared to be:
"Sometimes these organizations worked hand in hand with the
security organizations, ie. the KGB and others like that, and
therefore you never quite knew what you were getting into
and how if the places were bugged or what not. That's of
coarse all changed now."
Part of that change involved the breaking up of urban space
for private ownership. With that came a dramatic growth in
western demand for business and residential space. Papp says
the evolution of Central Europe's real estate industry is a
story of how competition brought order to chaos:
"A whole host of companies were entitled to rent out, to
acquire property and what not. It was a very chaotic period
because on the one hand ownership issues were not clear at
all so the people who were letting space didn't necessarily
have title to it."
"The whole industry of real estate agents has sort of self-
regulated itself, it didn't wait around for governments to
pass the necessary laws."
The real estate agents also set up codes of ethics and
behavior to ensure that local agencies measured up to the
west.
One of the most complex aspects of this new market was
dividing up land which had various uses - including multi-
leveled properties such as office suites and apartments. In
some cases, properties were returned to the families of their
procommunist owners. In others, ownership was given to the
companies which managed those properties for the
government. Local city and county governments got some lend,
and some remained under national ownership.
This dividing up of property inevitably created hassles and
lawsuits. Governments often had to compensate or evict so-
called squatters. Also, without an established real estate
market, Papp says it was nearly impossible to determine
market values:
"Five years ago, it was a mess. There was no market value to
any of this property. Now there is. Nowadays it's pretty easy
to give value to some of this property, because people have
been sort of renting them, buying them, selling them."
And the real value of these properties has soared, especially
in the capital cities. Papp says this inflation was largely
fueled by demands.
"It's definitely a sellers market in the capital cities, it's
certainly been very difficult to find quality space and for that
reason, the prices have skyrocketed to levels found in cities
like New York and Tokyo and London, the high end of the
western property markets."
But Papp says it's a different world in the so-called second
cities, Like Gyor in Hungary or Brno in the Czech Republic.
There, property rates remain a bit more down-to-earth.
Other developments in the real estate industry seems just on
the horizon. Some central European countries may soon
liberalize lending laws, so real property can be used as
collateral. So mortgage companies or lending bank could
become the next tier in Central Europe's growing real estate
service market.
SURVEY
------
Romania's prospects are beginning to look brighter at last.
Investor interest is picking up and the economy has stabilized
for the time being. 1995 could be a make or break year for
Romania depending on whether the government can survive.
These two young musicians playing in the Bucharest subway
are simple buskers, out to earn some extra pocket money,
they're not filling out tax forms and paying social security
insurance yet, but they are part of Romania's expending new
private sector.
The private sector now makes up a third of the Romanian
economy. And by the end of 1994, Romania had achieved a
level of economic stability which gave the country a
promising start to 1995.
Theodor Nicolaescu, a director at the State privatization
agency is optimistic...
"The new-born private sector developed tremendously in the
last years and it is reaching a sort of critical mass from
which on it is able to continue structural changes in our
economy that are necessary. Of coarse government action
could be a welcome catalyzer, but even without it the capital
market will appear."
In the first weeks of 1995 the government will be pulling out
all the stops to meet the conditions for the next installments
of the International Money Failure structural adjustment
loans. One of those IMF conditions, Romania's long-awaited
stock market should appear early in the year - the legal
groundwork has been laid and all that's needed now is enough
companies listing shares, that can be traded.
A new law designed to speed up privatization will encourage
the development of Romania's fledgling capital market.
Finally passed by the Romanian Senate in December, the mass
privatization scheme will distribute shares in 3000 states
enterprises by June.
And Romania's state-owned commercial bank Banca Romana
pentru Dezvoltare, the Romanian bank for development, should
be privatized by August.
Rodica Seward set up Romania's first investment bank,
Capital SA, intends to establish an investment fund in 1995.
Seward says its vital that privatization kicks off this year.
"If we could have 2 or 3 very good successes in the first
quarter of 1995 and then publicize them very well, and
encourage other companies to do the same and we have got to
start actively capital markets development and start stock
market and more important,cos could open as physical entity
create a few financial instruments to be traded on the stock
market."
But the Romanian government isn't expected to limit its new
initiatives to the economic front.
Last year Romania was the first country to sign NATO's
partnership for peace agreement. But the country remains
much further away from integration with NATO and the EU
than its northern neighbors.
Both organizations are likely to require that Romania improve
relations with Hungary. Late last year Romania's lower house
of parliament passed legislation severely limiting the rights
of the Hungarian minority in Romania. Still Bucharest has
been making encouraging noises on the prospects of a
bilateral treaty with Hungary. And Stelian Tenase, the vice
president of the Senate's foreign affairs committee and an
opposition member sees it as a priority...
"I think it could be the main step in the next future to sign a
peace treaty with Hungary."
Tenase hopes an agreement on the treaty can be reached this
year.
But for that Romania will need political stability. For much of
last year. parliament was paralyzed by political squabbles.
The government was subjected to five motions of no-
confidence. And the opposition is talking of trying again to
force early elections in 1995. But the opposition itself is
divided over when and how.
"I don't agree with president Iliescu but the problem is if we
want to impeach the president Iliescu, to do it at the right
moment with the right people."
This year they may succeed. But new elections won't do much
to cheer up the people on the streets. Most young Rumanians
are fed up with political squabbling. Christine Schneider is a
high school student. She has idealistic hopes for 1995....
"I hope things will get better, I'm not talking about politics or
something, people have to be more good to each other. We are
all very concerned about money and job and we are not friends
like we were in December '89.""
Others like this student at Bucharest university, have more
materialistic desires.
"I want to visit England, maybe United States, or maybe I will
stay in Romania.... more money you know its a problem with
the money.
Still with a growing private sector and mass privatization
set to take off people should have a little more money in their
pockets. And before long they'll be able to spend some of it in
Romania's first ever McDonalds, set to open in Bucharest in
spring.
ABOUT CET ON-LINE
-----------------
* CET On-Line - copyright 1994 Word Up! Inc. and Cameron M. Hewes.
All rights reserved. This publication may be freely forwarded,
archived, or otherwise distributed in electronic format only so
long as this notice, and all other information contained in this
publication is included. For-profit distribution of this
publication or the information contained herein is strictly
prohibited. For more information, contact the publishers.
*****************************************************************
A tovabbterjesztest a New York-i szekhelyu Magyar Emberi Jogok
Alapitvany tamogatja.
[*] [*] [*] [*] [*][*] [*][*][*]
[*] [*] [*] [*] [*] [*] [*]
[*][*][*] [*][*][*] [*][*] [*][*]
[*] [*] [*] [*] [*] [*] [*]
[*] [*] [*] [*] [*] [*] [*]
Reposting is supported by Hungarian Human Rights Foundation News
and Information Service.
*****************************************************************
|
| + - | CET - 29 December 1994 (mind) |
VÁLASZ |
Feladó:  (cikkei)
|
29 December 1994
Volume 1, Issue 28
REGIONAL FEATURE
----------------
Hungary's political scene is not renowned for its
entertainment value. Larger than life characters are thin in
the ground, especially since the demise of the 280 pound,
ultra-nationalist, Istvan Csurka. Undeterred, CET went
looking for the lighter side of events in 1994.
The political year in Hungary was not short on irony with
elections in April bringing back to power the former
communists in a coalition with the Free Democrat former
dissidents they spent most of the 70s and 80s hounding. And
this change-over has also had its rough moments. One was
when the newly appointed Prime Minister Gyula Horn and
Interior Minister Gabor Kuncze both refused to follow police
orders and move into more secure premises. Tibor Vidos, a
political consultant for GJW Government Relations tells the
story.
"None of them wanted to move house, and the secret service
parked a caravan in front of their homes and defended them
from there and they installed some electronic devices. And
then after 3 months or 4 months of pressure Gyula Horn
yielded and actually moved to the official residence of the
Prime Minister and Gabor Kuncze moved to a villa in the Buda
hills."
Than there are those who didn't make into official residences,
like Young Democrat Viktor Orban. A year earlier pundits had
predicted the 31 year old party leader would be the country's
next Prime Minister. But in last April's election his party got
just 8% of the vote. On election night he inconsolable.
"When a journalist asked for an interview she finally made it
through to Viktor Orban's room and he was sitting in
darkness, watching a hockey match and saying, 'Well, it's
much more interesting than the election results.' He gave just
funny answers."
Some of those thrown out of office were no less bitter.
Outgoing Defense Minister Lajos Fur of the Hungarian
Democratic Forum actually refused to meet his replacement,
Socialist Gyorgy Keleti. Keleti had to wait 2 weeks to get
into his office. When he finally did take over, the new man in
charge of the nation's armed services raised a few eyebrows
when it was revealed that he had a passion for UFOs. Tibor
Vidos again.
"He admitted that yes he is interested and he believes that it
is something that should be studied. His military career was
with the press department of the army, he was the press
spokesman of the army, so probably he's not very well trained
in air defense or any radar technology, so that gives him some
credit, that he should believe in UFOs."
But perhaps Hungary's single most comical political image of
1994 is one which at the time was quite serious. It would
have been in rather poor taste to laugh at the metal
contraption which held Prime Minister Horn's head still
following a pre-election road crash in which he broke 2
vertebrae in his neck."
"It was a metal construction which was screwed to his head
and supported by his shoulders in order not to let his head
move. And so he had all sorts of strange suits with holes at
the right place at the shoulder so that he could wear this
headset. So there were lots of jokes about how he moves on
the streets. Like, he could mount a blue light to his head like
the one on his car and pass everywhere without any problems.
Nevertheless, it probably brought him a lot of sympathy votes
anyway."
It also brought out the best of Hungary's entrepreneurial
spirit. Hundreds of plastic imitations of Horn's headbrace
immediately went on sale in Budapest's streets. Perhaps the
final irony of a topsy turvy year was the site of a former
Marxist accepting the office of Prime Minister with a huge
iron crown on his head.
BUSINESS FEATURE
----------------
This year, air travel news centered on building bridges
between east and west. There were new contracts, airplanes and
routes -- and some botched agreements as well.
The major news out of Central Europe's travel industry this year
was how state-run airlines in the east tried to cope with
increased service to the west. From east or west, it hasn't been
easy. We asked Chris Warrington, head of Budapest's ESO
leisure travel to review the year's travel news. We begin with
the Czech airline CSA and the evolution of its botched two-year
partnership with Air France.
"CSA started to take aircraft from Air France on a
lease basis and this would actually increase their fleet to
one of the most westernized for the former communist east
European countries."
But despite CSA's own financial troubles, it was Air France's
problems -- with labor and a government bailout -- that forced
the Czech carriers hand. The relationship came to a formal end
in March with the dumping of Air France's shares.
Moving south, Warrington sees a rocky relationship for the
Hungarian Airline Malev and its Italian strategic partner
Alitalia:
"Alitalia has had its own financial troubles and has
been trying to get its own house in order and has neglected
attention toward Malev. Then there's a problem going the
other way with Alitalia feeling they'd been overcharged in
the amount that they'd agreed to pay toward Malev and
decided that they were going to hold back on the second
payment."
Other problems between Malev and Alitalia have included questions
on high Hungarian customs duties and delays in establishing joint
routes to Spain and Italy.
In Poland, however, optimism prevails over the planned east-west
partnership between national carrier LOT and American Airlines.
That comes on-line January 10, with a code and route sharing
agreement which will operate both markets.
Another market to be opened this year -- and bound to expand next
year -- has been Belgrade, capital of what's left of Yugoslavia.
Coming out of international sanctions, Belgrade has seen resumed
service from Lufthansa, Swissair and Aeroflot. British Airways
has expressed an interest in Belgrade and JAT Yugoslav airlines
is negotiating the resumption of its international service.
Depending on the what happens in the former Yugoslavia,
Warrington says this activity will only pick up next year:
"There is a large diplomatic community, obviously, in
the capital of the former Yugoslavia. It has been necessary
for these people to transfer in Budapest in most cases to
pick up flights to get out and in to the country."
1994 also saw the opening of European Union talks on deregulation
and uniform arrangements between eastern and western Europe. But
Warrington says these agreements could be years in the making.
Ironically, the source of snags will be the financial troubles of
some western European carriers.
"I think some of the governments may really sort of
struggle with a total open skies policy, especially where
their national carriers are not exactly making a profit.
Until they get their house in order, eastern
carriers could well do very well with it."
Also this year, the air carriers of the former communist
countries began seriously phasing out the Soviet-made Tupolev and
Ilyushin airplanes in favor of Western-made Boeings, Fokkers and
Airbuses. CSA flew its last Ilyushin this year, and Malev
promises a Soviet-free fleet by the end of 1995.
Warrington says the Russian airplane manufacturers have to be
thinking about the future:
"They're really going to have to seriously look at
the selling and marketing of their air craft. Both of these
particular companies have been working in conjunction with a
couple of the larger aircraft manufacturers. (17:50)
Not that Tupolev or Ilyushin will be going out of business in the
near future. Warrington says the future for these Russian
airplane makers depends on making the right decisions now.
"I think it'll all boil down in the long run to price
and how they can actually market it. But they'll have to
scale down their plans for the initial period anyhow."
The Russians have been making plans -- including using highly
touted Rolls Royce engines on their most recent models. But
surviving the marketing hits they've taken in recent years will
be difficult. the ultimate test will be if they can ever sell
airplanes again outside the states of the former Soviet Union.
That may only come through partnerships with the likes of Boeing,
McDonnell Douglas and other western manufacturers.
SURVEY
------
**Hungarian Year in Review**
Since 1990, Hungary has been considered the most stable
country in the former Soviet Bloc. Its conservative
government held power for an entire 4 year term, leading
Hungary gradually towards the west. But 1994 brought
uncertainty as a deeply divided ex-communist party returned
to power. While officially committed to an economic program
of austerity, the Socialists have so far failed to implement
the tough reforms needed to restore Hungary's economic
health. CET looks back at Hungary in "94.
Renowned throughout the world for their pessimism,
Hungarians had a little more to worry about this year. Hungary
hadn't faced so much uncertainty since the end of communism.
A new Socialist led government took power, privatization
went into limbo and Hungary's economic direction remained
unclear. Just south of the border war raged in the former
Yugoslavia, but Hungary's future security arrangements
stayed up in the air. The Bosnian war dominated the Budapest
summit of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in
Europe in early December. Leaders from 52 nations came to
Budapest for the summit, which was billed as the most
important meeting in Hungary's history. But they couldn't
agree on much beyond Ukraine's signing the "Start 1" nuclear
weapons treaty. Even as Bihac was besieged, Russia blocked
all references to the Bosnian conflict in the summit's final
document. Russia also objected to NATO expansion into
central Europe. But American President Bill Clinton says
NATO is coming anyway.
"NATO will not automatically exclude any nation from joining.
At the same time no country outside will be able to veto
expansion. As NATO does expand, so will security for all
European states."
No one would be happier than Hungary to see NATO expand or
the Bosnian crises end. Hungary continued to walk a tight rope
this year, trying to please the west and its Serbian neighbor
too. NATO radar planes used Hungarian airspace to enforce the
Bosnian no-flight zone. But Hungary also sought to normalize
relations with Serbia, preparing for a resumption of trade
when sanctions are lifted. Improving relations with Hungary's
neighbors, especially those with large Hungarian minorities,
is expected to be a top foreign policy objective of the
Socialist government. It believes that the signing of treaties
re-affirming existing borders will greatly reduce tensions in
the region and clear the way for European Union and NATO
membership for Hungary. Despite this western-oriented
foreign policy, many people are concerned that Hungary's new
government is dominated by former communists.
Riding a wave of economic discontent caused by the
transition to free market, the Socialists captured an absolute
majority in Hungary's May elections. Budapest school of
politics director Istvan Stumpf says citizens restored the
party that brought them a higher standard of living in the late
1980s under the reform communist leader Janos Kadar.
"The ordinary people made a comparison and they found that,
during Kadarism, the situation, from the living standard point
of view and from the social security and economic point of
view, was more comfortable."
But the Socialists won't be able to make the price of bread 4
forints again. In fact Hungary's financial woes; a high budget,
trade and current account deficits, make it difficult for the
government to increase spending at all. Hungary's state debt
stands at 9% of its gross domestic product and its foreign
debt is the highest per capita in Europe. Even within the
party, many oppose more social spending. Stumpf says the
Socialist party, which ran the country for the last 50 years,
has support from business people and the wealthy as well as
the working class.
"The biggest problem of the Socialist Party is the very strong
contradiction between the most important bases of
supporters. One includes the leaders, the nomenclature
peoples and the other side you can see the blue collar
workers. The people who are living in a very low level and
they are expecting that the Socialist Party can give back the
social security."
The Socialist's coalition with the liberal Alliance of Free
Democrats hasn't ended all of the business communities
concerns. For the first time since 1990, Hungary was not the
top recipient of western investment in the region as
privatization ground to a halt. Conservative critics, like
former privatization commissioner Gyorgy Rasko, think the
government is intentionally delaying to placate unions. Rasko
says this is jeopardizing the economy's health.
"The state owned companies, without financial restructuring,
can't survive the next couple of years. The value, the real
asset value has been decreasing since 1991. And if you
hesitate, the so-called opportunity cost increases."
One Hungarian company that'll have to wait for privatization
is Channel 2. After a long battle with the Free Democrats, the
Socialists succeeded in preserving government ownership of
Hungary's 2 TV stations. A media bill submitted to Parliament
this fall would free an unused channel for commercial TV. But
the legislation seems to be prolonging rather than resolving
Hungary's media war. Since 1992, Hungary's political parties
have battled for control of TV and radio. Prior to the spring
elections, the conservative government fired over 100 radio
editors and reporters, an act condemned by the International
Federation of Journalists after a fact finding delegation
visited Hungary. But under the Socialist government, the
conservative TV news program "Hirado" was canceled. And
contradicting the wishes of most Hungarians, the coalition
also canceled Expo '96, a world's fair. Since business support
fell short, the equivalent of $300 million would have been
needed from Hungary's bloated budget. Budapest Mayor Gabor
Demszky explains.
"There was no money for it. That was the basic problem since
the beginning, and there were certain magicians and
ideologues of the Expo, people who were for it, who tried to
explain to society that the whole Expo can be managed on an
entrepreneurial base. What does this mean in reality? I don't
really know. But it means that it does cost too much for the
state budget and the local government budget, but that it can
be realized out of private money."
Some in the business community were disappointed by that
decision and by the proposed 1995 budget. It eliminates tax
holidays for foreign investors and taxes dividends at a higher
rate than income that remains in companies. Higher value
added taxes and energy prices, slated for January, brought
grumbles from ordinary Hungarians. Negotiations with trade
unions on a social pact remain stalled. And the International
Monetary Fund and Finance Minister Laszlo Bekesi are warning
that further belt tightening will likely be needed to make
Hungary financially ship shape.
As the year comes to a close, the Socialist-led government
finds itself between a rock and a hard place. Its leaders know
what needs to be done, but the party rank and file and the
public at large are resisting. Unions are restless, foreign
business is concerned and privatization is virtually halted. It
seems the government needs a clear vision and the will to
implement it.
ABOUT CET ON-LINE
-----------------
* CET On-Line - copyright 1994 Word Up! Inc. and Cameron M. Hewes.
All rights reserved. This publication may be freely forwarded,
archived, or otherwise distributed in electronic format only so
long as this notice, and all other information contained in this
publication is included. For-profit distribution of this
publication or the information contained herein is strictly
prohibited. For more information, contact the publishers.
*****************************************************************
A tovabbterjesztest a New York-i szekhelyu Magyar Emberi Jogok
Alapitvany tamogatja.
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[*] [*] [*] [*] [*] [*] [*]
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Reposting is supported by Hungarian Human Rights Foundation News
and Information Service.
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|
| + - | Ministry of Foreign Affairs - Newsletter (jan.2) (mind) |
VÁLASZ |
Feladó:  (cikkei)
|
N E W S L E T T E R
Republic of Hungary Budapest, 1394 . 423
Ministry of Foreign Affairs Telephone:36(1)156-8000
Press Department Telefax: 36(1) 156-3801
1/1995. Budapest, January 02, 1995
Hungarian-German Trade Near DM 10 Billion
Bonn, December 30 (MTI) - After a temporary decline, economic
cooperation between Hungary and Germany set out again for vigorous
development in 1994, with bilateral trade approaching a record DM 10 billion,
Csaba Bazso, head of the Hungarian trade mission in Cologne, told MTI on
Friday.
Germany accounts for a quarter of Hungary's foreign trade turnover.
(Former East German territories have an exceedingly low share of around 5
per cent in total bilateral trade.) In 1994, both Hungarian exports to Germany
and imports from there increased by approximately 20 per cent.
With exports growing faster than imports in the second half of the
year, the trade balance is expected to show a Hungarian deficit of DM 700-
800 million.
The proportion of machines and equipment in Hungarian exports has
been around 10 per cent for years, while that of food products has stabilized
at 16 per cent after a drop last year. Almost 30 per cent of exports consist of
textile, leather and machine engineering contract work.
Over the last few years, German companies have accounted for a fifth
of foreign investment in Hungary, and small and medium-sized firms are
beginning to exhibit an increased interest in Hungary.
Under inter-state agreements, 12,870 Hungarians worked in Germany
in 1994.
Bazso said that due to a shortage of marketable commodity funds,
Hungary was able to take advantage of only a part of the additional
advantages stemming from its association agreement with the European
Union.
EBRD Signs Agreement with MOL
Budapest, December 30 (MTI) - A USD 55 million dollar credit
agreement was signed by executives of the Hungarian Oil and Gas Industry
Plc (MOL Rt.) and representatives of the European Bank for Reconstruction
and Development (EBRD) to meet balanced consumption requirements in
peak periods, the London-based international bank told MTI today.
The USD 55 million is designed to develop an advanced underground
gas reservoir and put it into service in the vicinity of an exhausted natural
gas deposit in Zsana (S Hungary).
Peter Reiniger, director of EBRD, says the bank has resorted to a new
method of flexible crediting in the framework of which MOL can avail itself of
various types of credit financing structures.
Hungary Becomes First OSCE Chairman-in-Office
Budapest, December 30 (MTI) - Beginning October 10, Hungary played
host to the CSCE review conference, which was closed by a summit meeting
of the heads of state and government of the participating countries on
December 5-6.
Hungarian diplomacy, already active in the Helsinki process, will face
even more work in 1995. It would like to strengthen the executive power of
the chairman-in-office of the CSCE, which will soon become the
Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), and that of the
troika (consisting of the outgoing chairman-in-office Italy, the current
chairman-in-office Hungary, and Switzerland, which will take over the chair
in a year's time). Hungary will also concentrate on crisis prevention and hold
negotiations with parties directly involved in conflicts. Hungarian Foreign
Minister Laszlo Kovacs will be the OSCE Chairman-in-Office in 1995.
At first, Hungary took part in the CSCE process as a member of the
Warsaw Pact. Despite its low strategic importance, it played an active part in
security negotiations. In the field of human rights, it became the first
socialist country to host a CSCE Cultural Forum in 1985. Two years later,
Hungary and Canada submitted a joint proposal on how to enforce the rights
of national minorities. At talks on the reduction of conventional weapons in
Europe, the Hungarian delegation insisted that the agreement determine
arms reduction levels separately for each country because of the breakup of
the Warsaw Pact. Hungary was also very active in working out mechanisms
for monitoring and safeguarding human rights and in determining the CSCE
norms in the field of human rights.
Budapest, December 30 (MTI) - In the last few years Hungarian foreign
policy has continued to pay great attention to the CSCE's basic principles
and institutions. When it took on the organization of the CSCE review
meeting and summit, it wished to give a new impetus to this institution. The
summit was attended by 52 countries, and the Hungarian capital received a
total of over 70 delegations including those of the observer Macedonia, the
Republic of Korea and various international organizations. President Arpad
Goncz, Prime Minister Gyula Horn and Foreign Minister Laszlo Kovacs held
bilateral discussions with more than 60 high-ranking guests, including U.S.
President Bill Clinton and Russian President Boris Yeltsin.
Hungary sees the Political Declaration, the declaration on the 50th
anniversary of the end of World War II and the 11 additional documents as
outstanding results of the Review Conference and the Summit Meeting.
Foreign Minister Laszlo Kovacs welcomed the principled agreement on
sending a peacekeeping force to help resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict. At the same time, he was critical of the Code of Conduct because it
deals with the minorities question in too general terms. Hungary also
considers it a failure that the participants failed to adopt a document either
on the Yugoslav crisis or the situation in Bihac. Kovacs said the debate had
convinced him that the CSCE cannot be effective in settling conflicts that
have already broken out, which is why he, as OSCE chairman-in-office,
would like to concentrate on conflict prevention.
During the CSCE summit, the Hungarian capital was host to about
2,000 journalists reporting to about 4 billion people. Hungary has probably
never before received such wide coverage in the world press. Delegates
were guarded by 3,000 policemen and the residents of Budapest were
requested to use public transport during the two days of the summit. All the
foreign participants expressed their appreciation to Hungary's foreign
minister for the smooth organiztation of the summit, which cost the country
about HUF 300 million, or USD 2.7 million.
Quotas on Farm Imports from the EU and Visegrad Countries
Budapest, December 30 (MTI) - In a joint decree, the Minister of Trade
and Industry and the Minister of Finance have published customs quotas
and related duties regarding agricultural and food products from countries
with which Hungary has signed free trade agreements. The product quotas
related to the Visegrad countries and the European Union are valid for the
first half of 1995.
According to the agreement with the EU, 2,875 tonnes of frozen beef
may be imported to Hungary at the preferential duty of 10.5 per cent, down
from the normal duty of 106.3 per cent. The quota for seed potato will be
4,313 tonnes and the preferential duty 2.3 per cent. The normal duty is 50.7
per cent.
In the first half, the quota for EU citrus fruits will be 49,000 tonnes
-
the preferential duty on oranges will be 4.8 per cent, tangerines 16 per cent
and lemons 3.3 per cent, down from the normal duty of 6 per cent, 35 per
cent and 5 per cent respectively. EU imports of rice total 6,250 tonnes duty-
free as compared to the normal duty of 89.1 per cent. The beer quota will be
172,500 hectolitres, with preferential duty of 28.2 per cent as compared to
the normal duty of 78 per cent.
With respect to EU imports not stipulated in the agreement, 2,041
tonnes of fresh and frozen beef may be imported at 15 per cent, as compared
to the normal duty of 59.5 per cent. The frozen pork quota will be 1,255
tonnes and the preferential duty 15 per cent. The yoghurts quota will be
3,075 tonnes at a preferential duty of 15 per cent, down from the normal duty
of 75.2 per cent. In the first half of 1995, 8,750 tonnes of barley (seed and
other) may be imported at the preferential duty of 3 per cent as compared to
the normal duty of almost 40 per cent. The quota for mineral water will be
4,250 tonnes and the preferential duty 15 per cent - an 8.5 per cent discount.
Budapest, December 30 (MTI) - The product quotas for imports from
the Czech Republic and Slovakia are included in a combined table.
Preferential duties are the same, while quotas on certain products differ, For
example, 1,500 tonnes of potatoes may be imported from the Czech Republic
at the preferential duty of 35.5 per cent, but only 500 tonnes from Slovakia at
the same duty. The normal duty for both countries is 50.7 per cent. The
quota for malt from the Czech Republic will be 3,000 tonnes and Slovakia
2,000 tonnes. The preferential duty will be 14 per cent, down 6 per cent from
the normal duty. The quota for mineral water and beer from both countries
will be 2,500 hectolitres, with the preferential duty on mineral water imports
at 27.3 per cent, down from 39 per cent and beer 54.6 per cent from the
normal duty of 78 per cent. The quota for alcoholic drinks will be 5,000
hectolitres from each of the two countries and the preferential duty 54.6 per
cent, down from the normal duty of 78 per cent.
Budapest, December 30 (MTI) - In the first half of 1995, 3,250 tonnes o
f
poultry may be imported from Poland at the preferential duty of 20 per cent
as compared to the normal duty of 57.3 per cent. The quota for seed and
other potatoes from Poland will be 7,000 tonnes, with the preferential duty
on seed potatoes at 1.7 per cent and other potatoes 5 per cent. The normal
duty is 50.7 per cent for both types. The quota for cucumbers will be 7,000
tonnes and the preferential duty 6 per cent in winter months, 10 per cent in
spring and 20 per cent in summer. The normal duty is more than triple the
preferential duty. 15,000 tonnes of rye may be imported from Poland at the
preferential duty of 1 per cent - the normal duty is 47 per cent. The quota for
barley will be 30,000 tonnes and oats 14,000 tonnes. The preferential duty for
both products will be 1.5 per cent, down from the normal duty of 39.6 per
cent and 47 per cent respectively. The quota for alcoholic drinks will be
21,000 hectolitres at preferential duty of 20 per cent, while the normal duty
is
40 per cent. In the first half of next year, 180,000 tonnes of coal, produced
by
using Haldex technology, may be imported from Poland duty-free - the
normal duty is 3 per cent. Imports of engines, vehicle components,
refrigerating equipment and other manufactured goods from Poland will be
duty-free to a value of USD 5 million. The normal duty of these products
varies, but is usually less than 10 per cent.
First half quotas on agricultural and food products from Slovenia will
range from 25 to 500 tonnes. The latter refers to pears and quince-apples,
imported to Hungary at preferential duty of 17.5 per cent instead of the
normal duty of 72.4 per cent. (Econews)
New Year's Address by President Goncz
Budapest, January 1 (MTI) - The Hungarian president gave a New
Year's address on radio and television after midnight on January 1. Excerpts
from the speech are printed below:
I think at the close of the year we have all reflected upon our last
twelve months. What did they bring and what did they take away from us?
What did we do well and what is to be done better next year? And we have
faced our conscience: Is there anything to be ashamed of or anything we
can justly be proud of?
... We held local elections for the second time. The re-election of
nearly two-thirds of mayors indicates that people have accepted the local
governments.
... I see the formation of half a thousand minority local governments
next to the municipalities as the political success of the year and a major
progress. I sincerely hope these will lay foundations for the cultural
autonomy of our national minorities and will safeguard their national
traditions.
... Our life was not any easier in 1994: Many families had to give up a
lot of things. ... The gap between the western and eastern half of the country
has not narrowed, nor has the financial difference between the richest and
poorest. ... A great proportion of citizens live on the edge of society. This
is a
serious and dangerous issue: Delaying its solution will ricochet back to the
whole society.
Changes in our spot in the world - if there were any - were to our
benefit. We are taking on a growing role in a historic process, the emergence
of European unity. With or without a schedule, with knowledge of set criteria
or without it, inside or outside of NATO, together with the other nations of
Eastern Europe or separately, we are irreversibly coming closer and closer
to the political Europe, the European Union, day by day. We have not taken
notice but our legislation, economic structure and system of relations, our
scientific life, social awareness and order of values are all being adjusted.
This is both good and bad: It is time to think through the probable economic,
social and cultural consequences of our accession. It is time to draw a
balance in anticipation of possible gains and losses.
We are moving closer to Europe because we and our neighbours,
under the pressure of a common historic compulsion - reluctantly or not -
are becoming increasingly aware of the need to at last settle our common
affairs. And this includes the fate and rights of our kin living outside our
borders.
... It seems that 1994 was a year of ripening changes not only in the
political life but also in society and the economy.
... Although the final economic balance of last year is not yet ready,
it
is already clear that, after a long and steep decline, our industrial
production
has increased by close to 10 per cent, using 0.5 per cent less energy, and
our industry has the highest rate of productivity in the region. Despite its
difficult position and marketing problems, agriculture recorded far better
results than in 1993. Livestock numbers stopped decreasing and even began
to increase. Accordingly, we can justly expect a 3-3.5 per cent increase in
per capita GDP.
According to preliminary estimates, personal savings rose by 20 per
cent and the amount of investments by 25 per cent at comparative prices.
For the first time in several years, there was a drop in unemployment. The
country's hard-currency reserves amount to USD 7 billion. Hungary
continued to receive most of the foreign working capital arriving in Eastern
and Central Europe.
... In the first moments of the new year, I would like to ask you to no
t
only manage carefully your strength and scanty financial means, but to also
make good use of your reserves of hope and patience. 1995 will not be an
easy year, but I have no reason to believe that the long-awaited economic
process will come to a standstill.
I wish all of you strength and good health in the New Year, and the
crucial blessing of God for this.
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A tovabbterjesztest a New York-i szekhelyu Magyar Emberi Jogok
Alapitvany tamogatja.
[*] [*] [*] [*] [*][*] [*][*][*]
[*] [*] [*] [*] [*] [*] [*]
[*][*][*] [*][*][*] [*][*] [*][*]
[*] [*] [*] [*] [*] [*] [*]
[*] [*] [*] [*] [*] [*] [*]
Reposting is supported by Hungarian Human Rights Foundation News
and Information Service.
*****************************************************************
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